Promoter intelligence

Book with less
uncertainty.

Build the deal, track the negotiation, and know where the show stands once tickets go on sale. Crowd Curve tracks sales automatically from any ticketing platform.

Start a booking →

slow burn announce spike what everyone assumes live from the model

01 · Booking

Build the deal.

Model the show before you make the offer. Add your costs, ticket tiers and artist deal — Crowd Curve calculates the economics automatically.

Break-even Know exactly how many tickets you need to sell.

Profit at sellout See what the show is worth if the room fills.

Artist payout Model guarantees, percentages and bonuses instantly.

Build a booking →

Venue costs

Venue costs $5,700

The Foundry — standard▾ saved costs

Crew $450.00

Ad Spend $1,000.00

Venue $1,000.00

Direct Support $1,000.00

Equipment Rental $400.00

Ticket tiers

Ticket tiers Tax 8.875 %

400-cap GA ladder▾ saved tiers

TierQtyPriceAll-in

GA 15$20.00$22.60

GA 550$30.00$33.90

GA 6200$32.00$36.16

GA 7100$35.00$39.55

400 tickets in the ladder

Headliner deal

Guarantee Guarantee + % NBOR Guarantee + bonuses

Guarantee $2,500.00

Artist % of NBOR 75%

Break even 295 tickets · 74% of ladder

Profit at sellout +$1,463 14% return

Artist gets $4,388 their % beat the guarantee

Net revenue $11,550 400 tix · avg $28.88 net

Send to agent

Offer sheet Offer PDF ↓ Send to agent

To — agents choose at least one

A. Rivera — Talent Agency

M. Chen — Talent Agency

Subject Formal Offer — Nightfall at The Foundry

Sent

02 · The economics

Profit and loss, at every turnout.

The deal isn't one number. Crowd Curve computes the whole range — profit at every possible ticket count, where break-even lands, and the moment the artist's percentage overtakes the guarantee.

Every ticket is priced through the deal before you commit.

Profit vs tickets sold

break even · 790 tix NBOR 70%

Up to ticket 967 you keep every marginal dollar. Past it, 70% of NBOR beats the $20,000 guarantee and you keep 30% of each additional dollar.

The ticket slide

Tier	Price	Sold	Profit	Return
GA 1	$32.50	75	-$28,454	-93%
GA 2	$35.00	200	-$24,467	-80%
GA 3	$40.00	350	-$19,000	-62%
GA 4	$45.00	575	-$9,773	-32%
GA 5	$50.00	850	+$2,756	+9%
GA 6	$55.00	1,125	+$10,962	+30%
GA 7	$60.00	1,300	+$13,832	+32%

Cumulative, cheapest tier first — profit at every possible turnout.

03 · Deals

Keep the deal with the conversation.

Generate your offer and send it directly to the agent. Crowd Curve keeps the emails, counters and current terms connected to the booking — so you always know where the deal stands.

Send offers directly
Track replies and counters
See the latest deal status

Crowd Curve reads the thread and surfaces the important changes.

Offer sent

You Promoter 12 Aug 2026 · 09:14

Formal offer attached — $2,500 vs 75% NBOR, scaling enclosed.

offer-v1.pdf

The counter

You Promoter 12 Aug 2026 · 09:14

Formal offer attached — $2,500 vs 75% NBOR, scaling enclosed.

A. Rivera Agent 14 Aug 2026 · 16:41

Countered at $3k; scaling holds. Date challenge clears Friday.

Summary · 14 Aug 16:44 Negotiating

Agent countered — terms updated on the booking. A revised offer is owed.

Confirmed

Final terms $3,000 offer v3 · full history kept Confirmed

04 · On sale

Bring in sales from anywhere.

Crowd Curve works with any ticketing platform. Forward your nightly sales report, enter counts manually, or connect your ticketing feed.

Every show stays together in one place.

Every show, one table

Artist	Date	Status	Sold	%
VOLTA	Fri 02 Oct	On sale	83 / 200	42%
KAIROS	Fri 16 Oct	On sale	129 / 400	32%
Nightfall	Sat 31 Oct	On sale	76 / 210	36%
Deep End	Sat 28 Nov	On sale	971 / 1,300	75%

Counts from anywhere

Date	Total	Δ	Source
Thu 25 Sep	924	+7	email
Fri 26 Sep	932	+8	email
Sat 27 Sep	947	+15	manual
Sun 28 Sep	971	+24	api

nightly report · manual entry · ticketing feed — any platform

The Curve

Know where the show is headed.
And what to do next.

A ticket count tells you how many you sold. Crowd Curve tells you what it means.

Built on hundreds of historical show curves, our in-house model measures where your show is headed — not just where it stands today. Know when to push marketing, when to pull back, and how likely you are to break even or sell out.

Sold 971 of 1,300 · 75%

Break even 254 to go · target 1,225

Pace vs sellout 1.30× ahead of the sellout path

Odds of selling out 89% break-even: 94%

actual break-even path sellout path implied trajectory

Paid push plan

Demand is trending past sellout on its own — cut paid spend to a maintenance floor and let the room fill.

“On pace” is a number,
not a feeling.

G(u) = w_E·E(u) + w_M·u + w_L·K(u)

The share of final sales that should be in by any day, fitted on real shows. That's what "behind" means.

u

The clock: 0 at on-sale, 1 at doors. Every campaign shares one axis.

E(u)

The announce impulse — the day-one spike. Hype has a half-life.

w_M·u

The steady middle: the slow drip through the weeks when the group chat gets nervous.

K(u) = 1 − (1 − u^a)^b

The closeout surge. a and b fit per segment — slow-burn shows back-load hard, announce-spike shows barely. The weights set each phase's share.

q_t ~ Poisson(λ_t)

Daily sales are random counts, and treated that way — not points on a smooth line.

q_t

Tickets sold on day t — 0, 2, 41. What a box office actually produces.

Poisson

Independent buys at an average rate. A 2-ticket Tuesday and a 40-ticket Friday are both normal — neither is a trend.

λ_t

Today's expected rate — fitted to your pickup, projected by the three forces.

q_[s,e) ~ Poisson(Σλ_t)

Missed a few days, or started tracking late? The gap counts once — “q tickets across those days” — because sums of Poisson days are Poisson. No numbers are ever invented to fill it.

λ_t = A·e^−t/τ_L + μ·2^−t/h + B·e^{−(T−t)/τ_C}

The daily rate is three forces summed. Which dominates, and when, is what the fit knows.

A·e^−t/τ_L

The announce burst: big on day one, spent within the week.

μ·2^−t/h

The drip: steady interest, halving every h days. Flat-forever is how forecasts lie.

B·e^{−(T−t)/τ_C}

Closeout urgency: near zero until doors close in, then it explodes — the at-the-door crowd.

P(sellout) = count( F_i ≥ C ) / N

Run your show thousands of times. Count.

N

Thousands of simulated futures, each replaying the rest of your campaign.

F_i

Future i's final count — capped at capacity, because a sold-out room stops selling.

count / N

The share of futures clearing a line: capacity gives sellout odds; break-even, the odds of walking away whole.

Crowd Curve

Stay ahead of the curve.